Weight training experiment – Week 20
In January of 2010, I was 10 weeks into a workout experiment. In the last ten weeks, strength gain in smaller muscle groups has clearly leveled off and the rapid increase in strength for the larger muscle groups has started to slow as well. Here are the charts updated with data up through today’s workout.
Week 20 - Strength as fraction of first workout (%).
A couple of features jump out:
- Progress with a pull downs flattened quickly. I backed off and tried to concentrate on negatives, but progress was slow. This exercise uses biceps, triceps and abs. The strategy going forward is to isolate the weakest area(s).
- Bench press progress appears to be tapering off to about 80% increase from mid-November. Leg press is nearly 90% and there is still week-to-week progress. The lat row progress, while only 45% from November, continues to progress a few pounds form week to week. I did not expect these results and am very pleasantly surprised!
- This represents 18 workouts averaging 23 min each, for a total workout time of about 7 hours of workout time. Time under load averages about 40% of the workout or about 2.8 hours of actually pushing the weights. I am satisfied that this workout method is very efficient!
- (The dip in leg press trend around February 20 is due to changing machines–I surpassed the capacity of the normal leg press machine and had to move a machine that holds free weights. This machine is at an incline so it took a couple of weeks to recalibrate. I added a conversion factor based on the angle of the inclined machine to adjust the last 6 points on the leg press line.)
- I gained a few pounds during this time period. Since I did not measure body fat ratios, I don’t know the details of weight redistribution. But the changes are in the right direction.
In terms of absolute weight, I am still a fairly weak desk jockey…
Week 20 - Weight trend for 18 workouts.
The results seem really great based on the 2 hours and 45 minutes I spent in the gym pushing weights. Recommended.
eBook readers want portability
Dear Author Reader Survey results I posted earlier indicates ebook readers want ebooks and devices characteristics that allow them to read conveniently on more than one device. Many solutions provide this functionality with some limits (both Barnes and Noble and Amazon offer dedicated devices [nook and Kindle], desk top applications and iPhone eReader options; Amazon uses proprietary book and DRM formats). And readers are using them.
Over half of the responses of those indicating they read ebooks indicate ebooks are read on more than one device.
The top multi-device combinations for 2 and 3 devices are shown below. Desktop plus iPhone is an important combination for publishers, ebook sellers and device makers to consider in their product plans.
Top three device combinations for users of 2 and 3 devices.
When readers expressed their preferences for using multiple devices and keeping them in sync, they responded consistently with the results above.
Readers value multi-device support.
Readers value synchronization between their devices.
Free eBook promotions drive sales
Dear Author Reader Survey results I posted earlier contain a couple of questions about free eBook promotions. The survey asks if readers have downloaded a free promotional eBook and whether the promotion prompted them to make purchase. The results for this audience are clear: they respond to the promotions and they make purchases based on downloads.
EBook promotions and resulting purchases.
EBook promotions and resulting purchases data.
eBook piracy about access, price, portability
Digging into the Dear Author Reader Survey results I posted yesterday a little more, I wanted to compare responses to a few questions by readers who indicated they have illegally downloaded an eBook to those who indicated they have not.
Of the 2724 responses to the survey, 681 indicated they have illegally downloaded an eBook (25%). It is difficult to judge from the audience whether this is a greater or smaller proportion than the general population of readers (even defining that is difficult 1+ books per year?). But the comparison of the two groups within the population that took the survey is interesting.
Here is how the “Illegal Downloaders” compared to the only legal downloaders (I call them “Non-Downloaders” in the charts below.)
Piracy skews young. The crossover seems to be mid-30s somewhere. More on this point later.
Age distribution of Illegal Downloaders vs. users who do not engage in illegal downloads (Non Downloaders)
Looking at complaints about eBooks, Illegal Downloaders are proportionally less satisfied in every category except the requirements for technical proficiency and “Other.” Illegal Downloaders are significantly less satisfied with Selection (access to books), eBook Quality and the Ability to share eBooks. The last is a little surprising since Illegal Downloaders have access to DRM-free versions of the books they downloaded and can share more easily than others–does this indicate they would rather be sharing legally?
Compare eBook complaints Illegal Downloaders vs. only Legal Downloaders (Non Downloaders)
When answering the question about the maximum price for an eBook they would be willing to pay, Illegal Downloaders have nearly the same distribution as Non Downloaders with a slightly higher fraction expressing they would be willing to pay on $5.99 for an eBook.
Compare max price distribution for Illegal Downloaders vs. those who do not engage in illegal downloading of eBooks (Non-Downloaders).
When asked what changes would stop or curtail illegal downloading, Illegal Downloaders expressed that both removal of DRM and a decrease in price would have an effect, while sharing would have less influence. Non Downloaders who answered this question showed that they had the same perceptions based on their imagined downloading influences–I like that they went out on a limb to predict their feelings about their hypothetical behavior.
Compare responses to influences on downloading behavior for Illegal Downloaders and Non Downloaders
Summary
The age distribution poses challenges for the future. There is no reason to think that illegal downloading of eBooks is static generational problem for publishers. As the population ages, older people will be downloading as much as younger people. eBook piracy will become a feature of the business landscape for all age groups.
Piracy seems to be about access and content portability. These complaints mirror the complaints about music. The quality and portability issues with music are clearing up slowly (e.g. iTunes now sells DRM-free, near CD quality tracks).
Piracy also seems to be about price. This survey doesn’t seem to indicate a solid floor. While one may be able to price non-DRM or portable eBooks higher than the alternatives, the pressure on naked price seems unrelentingly down. Most readers indicated they believe $9.99 to be a fair eBook price while a higher proportion of Illegal Downloaders than Non-Downloaders indicated that $5.99 is a fair eBook price. This survey doesn’t explore readers perceptions of eBook pricing over the life of the book (and there is no “used” eBook market in which to explore that question).
It isn’t clear that the current structure of authors, publishers and book sellers can make it all work well at $9.99 so this seems a real problem of perceived value. Readers seem to intuitively know that copying eBooks is free (you can get people to volunteer their time and resources to do it) and assume that means that eBooks should be very nearly free as well. But the same might be said for music where track prices seem to be finding some equilibrium between $.89 and $1.29. eBook pricing seems much more up in the air. We’ll see…
Dear Author Survey Results
In February, Dear Author sponsored a survey of readers with lots of questions about eReaders and eBooks. I found the the survey because TeleRead encouraged their readers to take the survey as well. Dear Author is community minded and released the raw results (kudos!) as well as a brief set of slides from a presentation they gave.
To do something beside coast on the hard work of others, I spent a few nights working up the results from the survey. My motivation was to dig into the questions about eReader functionality and eBook piracy. Dear Author was kind enough to give me permission to put some of the results here. Check in over the next few days for posts on observations conclusions from the survey data.
In the meantime, here are the complete results from the survey. Enjoy!
Dear Author 2010 Survey Report (pretty charts and such)
If you prefer to see the data at one of the lower levels, visit one of these.
Dear Author 2010 Survey raw data download
Saving the world with games
A few weeks ago, I waxed enthusiastic (for me, at least in writing here) about learning and games. McGonigal’s TED talk builds this out with descriptions and metrics of game play vs other kinds of problem solving. Formal education is already playing second place (time and attention) to game playing.
What problems are game players solving? This question warrants more investigation to understand what is happing now. But it is also a call to creativity and design.
The emotional and intellectual content as well as the complexity of the problems solved in these games beats out learning the 3Rs sitting quietly at a desk from here on. McGonigal outlines how the complex problems gamers are learning to tackle are important are deeply engaging:
- Urgent Optimism. Act now with a reasonable hope of success.
- Social Fabric. We like people better after game interactions, win or loose.
- Blissful Productivity. This kind of problem solving is fulfilling.
- Epic Meaning. Large scale, complex problems.
Residential energy monitoring payback?
Last year I made a cocktail-napkin calculation of the payoff challenges of home energy monitoring. My question then was whether the granularity of measurement required to make energy decisions in the home was mismatched to the amount energy used, and therefore, the amount that could be saved. It seems others are arriving at this question at even a slightly higher level of granularity–the (smart) meter.
From earth2tech comes an article on California utilities struggling to get data to customers. The last paragraph brings up the challenge of payoff periods being out of line with available savings,
There are signs that the smart meter backlash is spreading beyond California —Duke Energy is being ordered by Indiana regulators to justify the costs of an 800,000 smart meter deployment in that state, and Dominion Virginia Power is delaying a $600 million smart meter rollout to do more testing, after state regulators questioned whether the meters will cost customers more in increased rates than they will help them save in reduced energy usage.
